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Two closed boxes, Bl and B2, are on a table. Bl contains $1,000. B2 contains either nothing or $1 million. You do not know which. You have an irrevocable choice between two actions:
1. Take what is in both boxes.
2. Take only what is in B2.At some time before the test a superior Being has made a prediction about what you will decide. It is not necessary to assume determinism. You only need be persuaded that the Being’s predictions are “almost certainly” correct. If you like, you can think of the Being as God, but the paradox is just as strong if you regard the Being as a superior intelligence from another planet or a supercomputer capable of probing your brain and making highly accurate predictions about your decisions. If the Being expects you to choose both boxes, he has left B2 empty. If he expects you to take only B2, he has put $1 million in it. (If he expects you to randomize your choice by, say, flipping a coin, he has left B2 empty.) In all cases Bl contains $1,000. You understand the situation fully, the Being knows you understand, you know that he knows, and so on.
So – what do you do?
If you have read an answer on the net or something keep yer trap shut…. otherwise think it through and give your answer!
If the superior being has made a prediction and tampered with the boxes then if in theory even if the B2 box has nothing because they expect you to take both the beings prediction also predicts you will risk taking just the b2 box which means that the million would be in there. Its a paradox. Regardless of how “almost certainly correct” the greater beings prediction may be you have nothing to lose by taking both boxes.
Are you Noel Edmonds or something?
It’s a questio to which there is no answer, but to be 100% garuteed of gaining something you take both boxes. There is of course a counter argument here that if that is the sensible solution then you should take B2.
The entire question is based on this superior being has some level of fallibility (an unspecified amount of fallibility) and is therefore a flawed question in many regards!
Well, at the current exchange rate $1000 is less that £500, so what’t the point? Sure, you can buy a couple of Pharty’s nice bottles of wine for that, but it’s not life changing. In other words, not much of a “loss”.
So go for B2 on the off chance that you get half a million richer. You can’t retire on that, but it could buy some nice boys toys and a little depravity in Vegas.
If B2 was not empty, the only question I would ask the superior being would be if he or she could hold off letting anyone else know about the million dollars until I had put in for a divorce so the missus wouldn’t get half.
I’m pretty sure at that point we would have the answer to the age old question of whether God is a woman or not.
@XDC_Wolf wrote:
It’s a questio to which there is no answer, but to be 100% garuteed of gaining something you take both boxes. There is of course a counter argument here that if that is the sensible solution then you should take B2.
The entire question is based on this superior being has some level of fallibility (an unspecified amount of fallibility) and is therefore a flawed question in many regards!
Hmmm – technically there is no absolutely right answer – you can argue both sides reasonably well – but for me the key point is as follows… and the degree of fallibility is not an issue with this explanation Wolf.
When you come to the boxes and make your choice…. the supreme being is now out of the equation. He has already put the money in the relevant boxes – this is now irrevocable. As such NO MATTER WHAT YOU WERE THINKING OF DOING / WHAT THE SUPREME BEING THOUGHT YOU MIGHT DO YOU SHOULD TAKE BOTH BOXES! Either the money is in both boxes or only in B1 – nothing you can do at that point of time is going to change it… so knock yourself out and at least guarantee that you get that 1000$ whatever happens. (Make it 100000$ if that makes it seem more realistic to you.)
The mind fuck is …. did the supreme being work out what your reasoning would be and so knew that you would do that anyway? My answer would be… who cares… you cant change what happened in the past… at the point in time when you are faced with the 2 boxes you have to take both or you are being foolish – the money is either in there or it isn’t,,, this isnt quantum mechanics we are talking about here.
Its an interesting process to think through… i guess the main message for me is that prediction of the future is impossible as it would lead to paradoxical failures as in this case…. unless you accept a universe with no free will in it whatsoever.
Well why wouldn’t the supreme being want you to have 1 million dollars? If they have the ability to predict which box you would take, then surely their motivation is the deciding factor?
If the only way to ensure that B2 is definately empty is to take both or to flip a coin then taking only B2 as your own decision should contain $1 million, unless the supreme beings’ got a problem with you.
But let’s be honest, if the ultimate force in the universe doesn’t like you $1000 dollars isn’t going to do you much good…
Stop trying to anthropomorphize him neon… imagine it is a machine if you will. You cant add things like motivation into a pure thought experiment!
Hmmm – technically there is no absolutely right answer – you can argue both sides reasonably well – but for me the key point is as follows… and the degree of fallibility is not an issue with this explanation Wolf.
When you come to the boxes and make your choice…. the supreme being is now out of the equation. He has already put the money in the relevant boxes – this is now irrevocable. As such NO MATTER WHAT YOU WERE THINKING OF DOING / WHAT THE SUPREME BEING THOUGHT YOU MIGHT DO YOU SHOULD TAKE BOTH BOXES! Either the money is in both boxes or only in B1 – nothing you can do at that point of time is going to change it… so knock yourself out and at least guarantee that you get that 1000$ whatever happens. (Make it 100000$ if that makes it seem more realistic to you.)
The mind fuck is …. did the supreme being work out what your reasoning would be and so knew that you would do that anyway? My answer would be… who cares… you cant change what happened in the past… at the point in time when you are faced with the 2 boxes you have to take both or you are being foolish – the money is either in there or it isn’t,,, this isnt quantum mechanics we are talking about here.
Its an interesting process to think through… i guess the main message for me is that prediction of the future is impossible as it would lead to paradoxical failures as in this case…. unless you accept a universe with no free will in it whatsoever.
more or less what I said with extra trimmings 😉
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